The Big Ones by Lucy Jones

I’m planning on opening my next novel with an earthquake, so I read The Big Ones by Dr. Lucy Jones. Her take on extraordinary earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis is that they change society. Though she is a scientist, she focuses on the human side of major disasters. For example, the response to the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 was so racist that African Americans deserted the Party of Lincoln that they’d reliability supported for over 60 years.

“By 1932, many in the African American community had decided that Roosevelt … was a better bet … Roosevelt won only a third of the African American vote in 1932, but he won 70 percent in 1936. Since then, a Republican nominee has never again garnered more than 40 percent of the African American vote.”

An insightful book on the societal impact of major natural disasters.

The Lisbon earthquake of 1755 broke the hold of the Jesuits on political control of Portugal and ended the inquisition. “The king is said to have exclaimed to de Carvalho, ‘What is to be done to meet this infliction of Divine Justice?’ De Carvalho’s calm reply became legend. ‘Sire, we bury the dead and feed the living.’”

“Floods are unique among hazards in that, in coping with them, we must balance the need for containment with our other essential uses for water. Floodwater must be disposed of, but it must also be preserved for dry times (only more so in the arid West), while also retaining access to rivers for the transport of goods. (No one needs to bottle up earthquakes or magma to sell next summer.)”

“Damage to tunnels in earthquakes is extremely rare. This is true for a couple of reasons. First, the amplitude of seismic shaking underground is only half of what it is at the surface.” Also, tunnels are usually oval (a stable shape), compared to rectangular shapes for buildings.

In Italy, “the argument that formed the basis of De Bernardinis and Bertolaso’s reassurances—that small earthquakes reduce the risk of big earthquakes—is patently false. It is a bit of folk wisdom, one that I am asked about frequently, and that arises from nothing so much as wishful thinking. [emphasis added]”

An excellent blending of science and political science.

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